Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.055058 14.924080 16.928758 19.234462 21.808600 24.589356 27.815892
2025-10-12 10.350707 12.911077 15.863798 19.502589 23.846693 28.846127 35.013388
2025-10-19 8.796991 11.615523 15.021776 19.407560 24.867283 31.399859 39.762937
2025-10-26 7.541240 10.491555 14.212475 19.196157 25.635388 33.607846 44.148939
2025-11-02 6.674232 9.718483 13.702441 19.221867 26.581865 35.959557 48.695982
2025-11-09 6.012914 9.130591 13.350862 19.379359 27.648879 38.457694 53.489745
2025-11-16 5.388225 8.515217 12.885580 19.310170 28.357853 40.465316 57.672805
2025-11-23 4.825600 7.924509 12.390019 19.135455 28.872825 42.192591 61.508006
2025-11-30 4.426402 7.532103 12.135192 19.263466 29.786947 44.469819 66.149481
2025-12-07 4.179366 7.346010 12.160781 19.785595 31.270209 47.578505 72.045321
2025-12-14 3.775138 6.869217 11.703018 19.540875 31.597261 49.034303 75.630912
2025-12-21 3.287808 6.207508 10.902061 18.705784 30.976589 49.065284 77.132002
2025-12-28 3.134437 6.100986 10.984873 19.269537 32.530697 52.381727 83.608299
2026-01-04 2.956778 5.935567 10.957798 19.651921 33.817663 55.348006 89.677984
2026-01-11 2.703351 5.608402 10.631671 19.515793 34.262887 57.035455 93.860452
2026-01-18 2.465290 5.285329 10.285526 19.317642 34.586415 58.532604 97.788239
2026-01-25 2.285490 5.053974 10.079684 19.338398 35.257111 60.581815 102.621746
2026-02-01 2.142648 4.880056 9.961573 19.498549 36.157816 63.016590 108.126964
2026-02-08 1.980221 4.650653 9.723696 19.428340 36.657820 64.815992 112.672771
2026-02-15 1.818848 4.406837 9.439363 19.252924 36.960529 66.293929 116.737300
2026-02-22 1.708983 4.260147 9.327429 19.381536 37.789583 68.654634 122.291384
2026-03-01 1.653051 4.224513 9.427315 19.906472 39.335469 72.252926 129.972447
2026-03-08 1.516430 3.996445 9.129626 19.660441 39.486791 73.504474 133.805553